120 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Kaelen Culpepper
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.298); BABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Culpepper is a hold — league average with one number due to fall.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .200 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.298)
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.329 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
120 / 160 PA
wOBA.326
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
120 / 60 PA
Walk %5.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
120 / 120 PA
BABIP.329
lg avg .295 ▲+.034vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
85 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
120 / 50 PA
Chase %43.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.5%vs his norm —
120 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.5%→4.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.5% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 4.4%.
BABIP 0.329→0.241 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.329 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.245) → 0.241.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.