Is Willy Adames a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Willy Adames's rest-of-season outlook?

27.5% strikeouts and 87 mph exit velo can't support .311 wOBA

505 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Willy Adames

SF·SS

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

ON THE 10-DAY IL

Sell stable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 1AVG .210R 5RBI 4SB 0

Adames is a sell — the bat is below league and trending down

His expected wOBA is .296, which is .019 below the league average of .315, and with 505 plate appearances he has long since cleared the 160 needed for that number to be reliable. That is the skill, not a slump. His actual wOBA is .311, sitting right on top of it, and nothing in the underlying numbers says a bounce is coming — the expected mark has been stepping down across the sample rather than steadying. The rest of the profile points the same direction: 87.4 mph off the bat against a league average of 89.0, a 38.8% hard-hit rate under league, and a 27.5% strikeout rate well above the 22% average, paired with a chase rate of 31.6% and a swinging-strike rate of 13.9% that both run hot. This is the level he is at. Sell. 1 HR / 5 R / 4 RBI / 0 SB / .210 AVG says drop — a pure tax on your roster, deep-league streamer at best.

VS His Norm

Barrel %8.9%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —

327 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %38.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

327 / 50 BBE

Barrel %8.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −3.4% ▼

327 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.296

lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —

505 / 160 PA

wOBA.311

lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —

505 / 200 PA

Strikeout %27.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —

505 / 60 PA

Walk %7.3%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

505 / 120 PA

BABIP.281

lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm +.007 ▲BABIP is above his ~.274 norm — expect it to fall.

327 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —

505 / 50 PA

Chase %31.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

505 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 8.9%→10.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 10.2%.

BABIP 0.281→0.277 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.281 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.222) → 0.277.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.

slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 59 G) over ~44 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons