MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Willy Adames
384 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Willy Adames

SF·SS
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xwOBA 0.293 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59
ROSHR 5AVG .217R 22RBI 18SB 1

Adames is a sell — skill is below league with no excuses.

His expected wOBA is .293, .022 below the league average of .315, and he has 384 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .304, meaning his line is not being dragged down by bad luck. His exit velocity averages 88.4 mph, slightly below league, and while his hard-hit and barrel rates are roughly average, the overall package does not support a rebound. His strikeout rate is 27.9%, nearly six points above the league average, and his chase and swinging-strike rates are elevated, painting a picture of a hitter making too many decisions outside the zone. The cold trajectory of his expected wOBA across the sample confirms the skill is declining. There is no luck story to fall back on; this is the level he is at. Sell. Those 5 HR / 22 R / 18 RBI / 1 SB / .217 AVG numbers make him a streaming-only option at best. Drop.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.8%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.293 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.4 mph
88.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
251 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.2%
40.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
251 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.8%
norm8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
251 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.293
.293*
lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —
384 / 160 PA
wOBA.304
.304*
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
384 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.9%
27.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
384 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
384 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm +.010 ▲BABIP is above his ~.274 norm — expect it to fall.
251 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.9%
13.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA
Chase %32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
384 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.8%→10.4%signal5 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.284→0.278 regressednoise.217 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.275 (xBA 0.223) → 0.278.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~197 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~197 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 59 G) over ~197 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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