Is Willy Adames a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Willy Adames's rest-of-season outlook?

27.5% strikeout rate and 87.4 mph exit velo won't hold up.

505 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Willy Adames

SF·SS

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Adames is a sell — the bat sits below league with no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .296 against a league average of .315, and he has 505 plate appearances, well past the 160 it takes for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .311, essentially league average, so no suppressed BABIP is masking a better hitter underneath — this is the level. The contact quality backs that up: 87.4 mph average exit velocity against 89.0 league, a 38.8% hard-hit rate just under league, and the xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample rather than climbing. He strikes out 27.5% of the time against a 22.0% league mark and swings through 13.9% of pitches, so there is no contact-driven floor to lift the line. What you see is what he is. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG projection is waiver-level, making him streaming-only and a clear drop.

VS His Norm

Barrel %8.9%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —

327 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %38.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

327 / 50 BBE

Barrel %8.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −3.4% ▼

327 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.296

lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —

505 / 160 PA

wOBA.311

lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —

505 / 200 PA

Strikeout %27.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —

505 / 60 PA

Walk %7.3%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

505 / 120 PA

BABIP.281

lg avg .295 ▼−.014vs his norm +.007 ▲BABIP is above his ~.274 norm — expect it to fall.

327 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %13.9%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —

505 / 50 PA

Chase %31.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

505 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 8.9%→10.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 10.2%.

BABIP 0.281→0.277 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.281 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.222) → 0.277.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons