MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Weston Wilson
183 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Weston Wilson

SEA·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.251 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.68
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Wilson is a sell — the contact is weak and the strikeouts are climbing

His expected wOBA is .251, .064 below the league average of .315, and he has 183 plate appearances — past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing in his line is being dragged down by bad luck. His average exit velocity is 84.8 mph against a league average of 89.0, his hard-hit rate is 32.1%, and his barrel rate is 3.8% — all well below league with samples past the threshold. The reason the bat doesn't play is the strikeouts: 31.7% of plate appearances end in a strikeout against a league average of 22.0%, and that rate is climbing as the season goes. His walk rate and chase rate are fine, but they don't rescue a bat that is hitting the ball soft. The skill is what the numbers say. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is a pure drop — fade the production and stream the roster spot instead.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.8%—−8.5% ▼vs his ~12.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.251 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.8 mph
believable since Jul 3084.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.2 mphvs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.9%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.8%
norm3.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −8.5% ▼
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.251
.251*
lg avg .315 ▼−.064vs his norm —
183 / 160 PA
wOBA.269
.269*
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
183 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.7%vs his norm —
183 / 60 PA
Walk %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
183 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
norm.284*
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm −.025 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
183 / 50 PA
Chase %25.6%
25.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
183 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.8%→9.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.8% (signal) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 9.4%.
BABIP 0.284→0.237 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.187) → 0.237.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 21 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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