64 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Weston Wilson
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.263); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .194HR 4R 16RBI 8SB 5
Wilson is a hold — league average with a high-strikeout floor.
ROS projects AVG .231 YTD → .194 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.263)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
39 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.2%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
39 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −7.2% ▼Barrel % is below his ~12.3% norm — expect it to rise.
39 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 160 PA
wOBA.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —
64 / 60 PA
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
64 / 120 PA
BABIP.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm −.039 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
39 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
64 / 50 PA
Chase %28.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
64 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.1%→11.2%noise4 HR — Barrel% 5.1% (noise) lifted to career ~12.3% → projected 11.2%.
BABIP 0.270→0.232 regressednoise.194 AVG — BABIP 0.270 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.187) → 0.232.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~126 projected PA.
slugging + lineup8 RBI — his RBI rate over ~126 projected PA.
run rate / role5 SB — his steal rate (2 in 21 G) over ~126 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.