MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
284 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Max Muncy

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Muncy is a sell — the contact is fine, the results aren't

His expected wOBA is .288 against a league average of .315, and at 284 plate appearances that number is stable — this is the level he's at, not a cold stretch. The contact quality isn't the problem: a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 10.7% barrels both beat league, and his average exit velocity matches it at 89.1 mph. The problem is that he strikes out 32% of the time, ten points above league, on a 16.2% swing-and-miss rate, and both of those have been climbing across the sample. Whiff like that eats the balls in play his contact should be creating. There is no luck story to fall back on, and his expected wOBA has been stepping down, not up. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / .000 AVG line isn't a buying window — it's a waiver-wire drop; stream the counting stats elsewhere.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.7%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~10.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
89.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.7%
norm10.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.288
.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
284 / 160 PA
wOBA.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
284 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.0%vs his norm —
284 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
284 / 120 PA
BABIP.314
norm.314*
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm +.045 ▲BABIP is above his ~.269 norm — expect it to fall.
168 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
284 / 50 PA
Chase %33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
284 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.7%→10.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.7% (signal) tempered to career ~10.1% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.314→0.312 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.314 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.311 (xBA 0.218) → 0.312.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 27 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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