270 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Max Muncy
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .203R 6RBI 3SB 1
Muncy is a sell — his expected wOBA is below league and trending the wrong way.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.3%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~10.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.288
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
270 / 160 PA
wOBA.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —
270 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.2%vs his norm —
270 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
270 / 120 PA
BABIP.307
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm +.038 ▲BABIP is above his ~.269 norm — expect it to fall.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
270 / 50 PA
Chase %33.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
270 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.3%→10.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.3% (signal) tempered to career ~10.1% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.307→0.308 regressednoise.203 AVG — BABIP 0.307 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.308 (xBA 0.216) → 0.308.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (2 in 27 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.