MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 24, 2026
178 PA · week 18
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Max Muncy

data as of July 24, 2026·week 18
Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .207R 22RBI 13SB 3

Muncy is a sell — skill declining, no luck to blame.

Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.1%+1.0%vs his ~10.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.8 mph
90.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +1.8 mphvs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.5%
48.5%*
lg avg 40.0% +8.5%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.1%
norm11.1%*
lg avg 8.0% +3.1%vs his norm +1.0%
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.290
.290*
lg avg .315 −.025vs his norm —
178 / 160 PA
wOBA.301
.301*
lg avg .315 −.014vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
178 / 200 PA
Strikeout %34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 22.0% +12.3%vs his norm —
178 / 60 PA
Walk %7.9%
7.9%*
lg avg 8.5% −0.6%vs his norm —
178 / 120 PA
BABIP.319
norm.319*
lg avg .295 +.024vs his norm +.050 BABIP is above his ~.269 normexpect it to fall.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.9%
16.9%*
lg avg 11.0% +6.0%vs his norm —
178 / 50 PA
Chase %34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 28.5% +6.0%vs his norm —
178 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.1%→10.4%signal4 HR — Barrel% 11.1% (signal) tempered to career ~10.1% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.319→0.305 regressednoise.207 AVG — BABIP 0.319 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.213) → 0.305.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~150 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~150 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 27 G) over ~150 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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