MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
270 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Max Muncy

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .203R 6RBI 3SB 1

Muncy is a sell — his expected wOBA is below league and trending the wrong way.

Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.3%+1.2%vs his ~10.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.288 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.7 mph
88.7 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −0.3 mphvs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% +2.8%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.3%
norm11.3%*
lg avg 8.0% +3.3%vs his norm +1.2%
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.288
.288*
lg avg .315 −.027vs his norm —
270 / 160 PA
wOBA.300
.300*
lg avg .315 −.015vs his norm —
270 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 22.0% +10.2%vs his norm —
270 / 60 PA
Walk %7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.5% −1.1%vs his norm —
270 / 120 PA
BABIP.307
norm.307*
lg avg .295 +.012vs his norm +.038 BABIP is above his ~.269 normexpect it to fall.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.2%
16.2%*
lg avg 11.0% +5.2%vs his norm —
270 / 50 PA
Chase %33.1%
33.1%*
lg avg 28.5% +4.6%vs his norm —
270 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.3%→10.6%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.3% (signal) tempered to career ~10.1% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.307→0.308 regressednoise.203 AVG — BABIP 0.307 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.308 (xBA 0.216) → 0.308.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~38 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~38 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (2 in 27 G) over ~38 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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