188 PA · week 28
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Tristan Gray
data as of October 1, 2026·week 28
flipped from HOLD on October 1, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.263 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.65 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Gray is a sell — below-league skill and a falling expected line.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.0%—−7.1% ▼vs his ~13.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.263 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
117 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −7.1% ▼
117 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
188 / 160 PA
wOBA.262
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
188 / 200 PA
Strikeout %31.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
188 / 60 PA
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
188 / 120 PA
BABIP.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm +.054 ▲BABIP is above his ~.259 norm — expect it to fall.
117 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
188 / 50 PA
Chase %39.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.8%vs his norm —
188 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.0%→10.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.0% (signal) lifted to career ~13.1% → projected 10.5%.
BABIP 0.313→0.280 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.313 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.218) → 0.280.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 34 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.