76 PA · week 10
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
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Randal Grichuk
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Grichuk is a buy-low — the bat is real, the bounces are not.
His hard-hit rate is 45.5%, five and a half points above league average, and that number has been stepping up across the sample. At 55 batted balls, the contact quality is past its stabilization threshold and trustworthy. His expected wOBA is .382 — a clear gap above his actual wOBA of .328, and .067 above league. The culprit is his BABIP: .275, 20 points below the .295 league norm. BABIP needs about 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 55. That's luck, not a decline in the bat. The strikeout rate is 23.7%, barely elevated, so the floor is not caving in. The underlying skill is intact; the surface is lying. Buy low.
Buy Low
med0.71
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.275 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.0 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL55 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL55 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%too early to trust
NOISE55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.382
lg avg .315 ▲+.067too early to trust
NOISE76 / 160 PA
wOBA.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013too early to trust
NOISE76 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 60 PA
Walk %2.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.9%too early to trust
NOISE76 / 120 PA
BABIP.275
lg avg .295 ▼−.020too early to trust
NOISE55 / 800 BIP