225 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Randal Grichuk
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.332 is 0.033 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.313 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .246R 5RBI 6SB 0
Grichuk is a sell-high — the BABIP is propping up the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %11.7%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~9.5% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.313 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.332 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %48.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —
162 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
162 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
225 / 160 PA
wOBA.365
lg avg .315 ▲+.050vs his norm —
225 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
225 / 60 PA
Walk %4.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
225 / 120 PA
BABIP.313
lg avg .295 ▲+.018vs his norm +.020 ▲BABIP is above his ~.293 norm — expect it to fall.
162 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
225 / 50 PA
Chase %35.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
225 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.7%→10.5%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.7% (signal) tempered to career ~9.5% → projected 10.5%.
BABIP 0.313→0.310 regressednoise.246 AVG — BABIP 0.313 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.309 (xBA 0.274) → 0.310.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~31 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~31 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 36 G) over ~31 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.