134 PA · week 14
this weekHOLD
last week—
Josh Lowe
data as of June 25, 2026·week 14
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.263); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 5AVG .186R 13RBI 23SB 2
Josh Lowe is a hold — league average, nothing to chase.
ROS projects HR 5 YTD → 5 ROS, AVG .186 YTD → .186 ROS, R 8 YTD → 13 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.0%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.263)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 160 PA
wOBA.241
lg avg .315 ▼−.074vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
134 / 60 PA
Walk %4.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
134 / 120 PA
BABIP.220
lg avg .295 ▼−.075vs his norm −.104 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
134 / 50 PA
Chase %37.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
134 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.0%→8.8%signal5 HR — Barrel% 8.0% (signal) lifted to career ~9.1% → projected 8.8%.
BABIP 0.220→0.246 regressednoise.186 AVG — BABIP 0.220 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.249 (xBA 0.204) → 0.246.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~222 projected PA.
slugging + lineup23 RBI — his RBI rate over ~222 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (1 in 46 G) over ~222 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.