221 PA · week 20
this weekSELL
last weekBUY-LOW
Josh Lowe
data as of August 9, 2026·week 20
flipped from BUY-LOW on August 9, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .200R 6RBI 11SB 1
Lowe is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.0%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~9.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
145 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
145 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.296
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —
221 / 160 PA
wOBA.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —
221 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
221 / 60 PA
Walk %7.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
221 / 120 PA
BABIP.244
lg avg .295 ▼−.051vs his norm −.080 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.
145 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
221 / 50 PA
Chase %39.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.8%vs his norm —
221 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.0%→9.1%signal2 HR — Barrel% 9.0% (signal) held to career ~9.1% → projected 9.1%.
BABIP 0.244→0.270 regressednoise.200 AVG — BABIP 0.244 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.276 (xBA 0.222) → 0.270.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~107 projected PA.
slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~107 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 46 G) over ~107 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.