168 PA · week 12
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Nathan Church
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
flipped from HOLD on June 13, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 9AVG .239R 31RBI 31SB 7
Church is a sell — skill is below league with no luck story.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.1 mphvs his norm —
123 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —
123 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
123 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
168 / 160 PA
wOBA.300
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
168 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.0%
lg avg 22.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
168 / 60 PA
Walk %3.6%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
168 / 120 PA
BABIP.297
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
123 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.9%→8.7%signal9 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.297→0.276 regressednoise.239 AVG — BABIP 0.297 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.272 (xBA 0.240) → 0.276.
on-base + lineup31 R — his run rate over ~279 projected PA.
slugging + lineup31 RBI — his RBI rate over ~279 projected PA.
run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (4 in 46 G) over ~279 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.