138 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Eduardo Valencia
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.372 is 0.061 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Valencia is a sell-high — his BABIP is doing the work.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.404 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.372 is 0.061 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %49.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —
97 / 50 BBE
Barrel %15.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
97 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.372
lg avg .315 ▲+.057vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 160 PA
wOBA.433
lg avg .315 ▲+.118vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
138 / 60 PA
Walk %4.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
138 / 120 PA
BABIP.404
lg avg .295 ▲+.109vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
97 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
138 / 50 PA
Chase %35.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
138 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 15.5%→14.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 15.5% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 14.0%.
BABIP 0.404→0.251 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.404 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.285) → 0.251.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 5 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.