95 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Eduardo Valencia
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.323 is 0.059 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .185R 7RBI 7SB 0
Valencia is a sell-high — his BABIP is carrying the line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.361 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.323 is 0.059 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
67 / 50 BBE
Barrel %17.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
67 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.323
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 160 PA
wOBA.382
lg avg .315 ▲+.067vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
95 / 60 PA
Walk %1.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 120 PA
BABIP.361
lg avg .295 ▲+.066vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
67 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
95 / 50 PA
Chase %35.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
95 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 17.9%→15.9%signal1 HR — Barrel% 17.9% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 15.9%.
BABIP 0.361→0.241 regressednoise.185 AVG — BABIP 0.361 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.247) → 0.241.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~29 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~29 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 5 G) over ~29 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.