532 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL-HIGH
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.59 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Chisholm is a sell — the line flatters a below-league bat
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.2%—−3.9% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.294 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
318 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
318 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −3.9% ▼
318 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
532 / 160 PA
wOBA.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
532 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
532 / 60 PA
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
532 / 120 PA
BABIP.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm −.004 ▼BABIP is below his ~.305 norm — expect it to rise.
318 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
532 / 50 PA
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
532 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.2%→9.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.2% (signal) lifted to career ~12.1% → projected 9.7%.
BABIP 0.301→0.281 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.301 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.216) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (14 in 56 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.