Is Jazz Chisholm Jr. a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .292, K% 29% — skills are real decline.

360 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY·2B

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.292 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60

ROSHR 5AVG .208R 21RBI 17SB 12

Chisholm is a sell — skill below league and trending down.

His expected wOBA is .292, which is .023 below the league average of .315, and his sample of 360 PAs is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The issue is not bad luck — his actual wOBA is .306, right in line with his xwOBA, and his BABIP is near league average. He makes contact near league average by exit velo, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, but the skills that tilt the balance are poor: he strikes out 29.2% of the time, a rate that has been stepping up, and his SwStr% is 14.0% against an 11.0% league mark. There is no bounce coming. The skill is below average with no luck excuse, and the K trend makes it worse. Sell. 12 SB is the only plus, but 5 HR and .208 AVG make him a deep-league drag. Sell.

VS His Norm

Barrel %8.8%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.292 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —

217 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %40.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —

217 / 50 BBE

Barrel %8.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −3.3% ▼

217 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.292

lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —

360 / 160 PA

wOBA.306

lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —

360 / 200 PA

Strikeout %29.2%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —

360 / 60 PA

Walk %10.3%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —

360 / 120 PA

BABIP.284

lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm −.021 ▼BABIP is below his ~.305 norm — expect it to rise.

217 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —

360 / 50 PA

Chase %29.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —

360 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 8.8%→10.4%signal5 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (signal) lifted to career ~12.1% → projected 10.4%.

BABIP 0.284→0.267 regressednoise.208 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.261 (xBA 0.211) → 0.267.

on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~191 projected PA.

slugging + lineup17 RBI — his RBI rate over ~191 projected PA.

run rate / role12 SB — his steal rate (14 in 56 G) over ~191 projected PA.

rosterdeep26 SB

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons