Is Jazz Chisholm Jr. a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s rest-of-season outlook?

29% strikeouts and a .296 xwOBA — profile sags

520 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL-HIGH

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY·2B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 1AVG .210R 5RBI 4SB 3

Chisholm is a sell — the surface line is hiding a weaker bat

His actual wOBA is .313, essentially league average, but his expected wOBA is .296 — .019 below the league average of .315 — and his sample is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The gap matters because expected wOBA is the skill and actual wOBA is the outcome. Both his expected wOBA and his strikeout rate have been moving the wrong way across the season: the skill has stepped down and the strikeouts have stepped up, now at 29.4% against a league average of 22%. His walk rate of 10.4% and a swinging-strike rate of 14.1% point at a hitter who is surviving on contact he cannot repeat at this rate. The underlying skill is below league and nothing in the profile is holding the line up. Sell. Projected 1 HR / 5 R / 4 RBI / 3 SB / .210 AVG — a counting-only drag, drop or streaming-only until the bat shows it.

VS His Norm

Barrel %8.3%—−3.8% ▼vs his ~12.1% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.296 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —

312 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %42.6%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —

312 / 50 BBE

Barrel %8.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −3.8% ▼

312 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.296

lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —

520 / 160 PA

wOBA.313

lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —

520 / 200 PA

Strikeout %29.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —

520 / 60 PA

Walk %10.4%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —

520 / 120 PA

BABIP.300

lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm −.005 ▼BABIP is below his ~.305 norm — expect it to rise.

312 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

520 / 50 PA

Chase %28.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —

520 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 8.3%→9.8%signal1 HR — Barrel% 8.3% (signal) lifted to career ~12.1% → projected 9.8%.

BABIP 0.300→0.283 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.300 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.271 (xBA 0.218) → 0.283.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~43 projected PA.

slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~43 projected PA.

run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (14 in 56 G) over ~43 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons