Is Nolan Gorman a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Nolan Gorman's rest-of-season outlook?

32% strikeout rate sinks a .277 xwOBA profile.

272 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Nolan Gorman

STL·3B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Sell stable xwOBA 0.277 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.63

ROSHR 1AVG .175R 3RBI 5SB 0

Gorman is a sell — the whiffs are eating the profile.

His expected wOBA is .277, which is .038 below the league average of .315, and his 272 plate appearances are past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .257, even lower, so there is no bad bounces story pulling the line down — he is simply not producing. The contact quality is only marginally above league, and the strikeout rate is 32.4% against a league average of 22.0%, with a swinging-strike rate of 19.1% that says the misses are structural, not a cold stretch. Both the expected wOBA and the strikeout rate have been trending the wrong direction across the sample. There is no luck waiting to come back. The market should not be paying for the name. Sell. With 1 HR / 3 R / 5 RBI / .175 AVG rest of season, he's a deep-league drop, not a stash — cut and stream.

VS His Norm

Barrel %10.8%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~14.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.277 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —

157 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %43.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —

157 / 50 BBE

Barrel %10.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm −3.4% ▼

157 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.277

lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —

272 / 160 PA

wOBA.257

lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —

272 / 200 PA

Strikeout %32.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —

272 / 60 PA

Walk %9.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —

272 / 120 PA

BABIP.236

lg avg .295 ▼−.059vs his norm −.051 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.

157 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %19.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.2%vs his norm —

272 / 50 PA

Chase %33.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —

272 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 10.8%→12.7%signal1 HR — Barrel% 10.8% (signal) lifted to career ~14.2% → projected 12.7%.

BABIP 0.236→0.244 regressednoise.175 AVG — BABIP 0.236 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.246 (xBA 0.193) → 0.244.

on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~41 projected PA.

slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~41 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 56 G) over ~41 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons