MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nolan Gorman
302 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Nolan Gorman

STL·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell stable xwOBA 0.278 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.62
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Gorman is a sell — the contact is fine, the at-bats aren't

His expected wOBA is .278, 37 points below the league average of .315, and he has 302 plate appearances — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. What keeps it there is the strikeout rate: 32.5% against a league average of 22%, stable, and climbing across the sample. The swing decisions back it up — an 18.5% swinging-strike rate and a chase rate above league. That combination does not leave a floor when contact goes cold. The odd part is that the quality of contact is not the problem: 89.3 mph average exit velocity, a 42.1% hard-hit rate, and 9.9% barrels are all at or above league, so he is hitting the ball hard and still not producing. His xwOBA has been stepping down as the strikeouts step up, and his actual wOBA sits at .260, so nothing here is bad luck waiting to turn. This is who he is at the plate right now. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG makes him a waiver-wire drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.9%—−4.3% ▼vs his ~14.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.278 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
171 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
171 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.9%
norm9.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −4.3% ▼
171 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.278
.278*
lg avg .315 ▼−.037vs his norm —
302 / 160 PA
wOBA.260
believable since May 27.260*
lg avg .315 ▼−.055vs his norm —
302 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.5%
32.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
302 / 60 PA
Walk %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
302 / 120 PA
BABIP.247
norm.247*
lg avg .295 ▼−.048vs his norm −.040 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
171 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.5%
18.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
302 / 50 PA
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
302 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.9%→12.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.9% (signal) lifted to career ~14.2% → projected 12.2%.
BABIP 0.247→0.246 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.247 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.246 (xBA 0.193) → 0.246.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 56 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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