MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Randy Arozarena
379 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Randy Arozarena

SEA·LF
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.354, +0.039 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.349 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.68
ROSHR 5AVG .263R 31RBI 20SB 13

Arozarena is a buy — his skill is running hot and stable.

His expected wOBA is .354, .039 above league average, and he has nearly 400 plate appearances — that number is reliable. His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample, now at 42.7%, and his exit velocity is well above the league mark. His actual wOBA is a touch higher at .369, and the discrepancy comes from a BABIP of .349 against a league average of .295. That number still has noise in it — he has 246 balls in play but needs closer to 800 for it to stabilize — so some of his average will come back. But the underlying contact quality is good and the batted-ball base is well past the stabilization point. The skill is real and the production is mostly earned. Buy. The 5 HR / .263 AVG projection may look pedestrian, but the 13 SB make him a standard-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.1%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~10.8% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.354, +0.039 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.349 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.3 mph
91.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
246 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.7%
42.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
246 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
246 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.354
.354*
lg avg .315 ▲+.039vs his norm —
379 / 160 PA
wOBA.369
.369*
lg avg .315 ▲+.054vs his norm —
379 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
21.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
379 / 60 PA
Walk %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
379 / 120 PA
BABIP.349
norm.349*
lg avg .295 ▲+.054vs his norm +.059 ▲BABIP is above his ~.290 norm — expect it to fall.
246 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
379 / 50 PA
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
379 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→9.3%signal5 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) lifted to career ~10.8% → projected 9.3%.
BABIP 0.349→0.330 regressednoise.263 AVG — BABIP 0.349 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.322 (xBA 0.267) → 0.330.
on-base + lineup31 R — his run rate over ~199 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~199 projected PA.
run rate / role13 SB — his steal rate (17 in 61 G) over ~199 projected PA.
rosterstandard30 SB

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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