MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Randy Arozarena
670 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Randy Arozarena

SEA·LF
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free skill 0.348 is 0.031 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.73
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Arozarena is a sell-high — his BABIP is inflating the line.

His actual wOBA is .379, and the stat building most of that number is his BABIP: .333 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 431. That gap is luck, not skill, and it is holding his line up. Strip it out and his expected wOBA is .348 — still .033 above league, but .031 below the surface he is showing. The contact quality agrees with the quieter number: 90.8 mph off the bat, a 43.5% hard-hit rate, and an 8.1% barrel rate that is essentially league average. His expected wOBA has been stepping up, so there is a real hitter here — just not the .379 hitter the market is pricing. Sell the inflated line, not the bat. Sell high. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is a drop-tier tax — sell the name into the window before it counts against you.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.1%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~10.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.348 is 0.031 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.8 mph
90.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
431 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
431 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
431 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.348
.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
670 / 160 PA
wOBA.379
.379*
lg avg .315 ▲+.064vs his norm —
670 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
21.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
670 / 60 PA
Walk %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
670 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
norm.333*
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm +.043 ▲BABIP is above his ~.290 norm — expect it to fall.
431 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
12.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
670 / 50 PA
Chase %30.6%
30.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
670 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→8.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) lifted to career ~10.8% → projected 8.9%.
BABIP 0.333→0.322 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.310 (xBA 0.258) → 0.322.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (17 in 61 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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