Is Ildemaro Vargas a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Ildemaro Vargas's rest-of-season outlook?

87 mph exit velo, 3% barrels — no power payoff

457 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Ildemaro Vargas

AZ·1B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.298 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.58

ROSHR 0AVG .244R 6RBI 7SB 0

Vargas is a sell — the bat is below league and not unlucky.

His expected wOBA is .298, .017 below the league average of .315, and he has 457 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .292, which tracks right with it, so there is no bad-luck story pulling the line down. The contact quality says the same thing: 87.3 mph average exit velocity, a 34.5% hard-hit rate and 3.1% barrels, all below league. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, not up. He does make contact — a 9.8% strikeout rate and a 7.7% swinging-strike rate are both well better than league — but the contact is soft, and a 40.6% chase rate is the reason. There is no skill waiting to break out and no luck waiting to come back. Sell. 0 HR / 6 R / 7 RBI / 0 SB / .244 AVG is replacement-level noise — cut him; streaming-only drop in every format.

VS His Norm

Barrel %3.1%—+0.9% ▲vs his ~2.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.298 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —

386 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %34.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —

386 / 50 BBE

Barrel %3.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm +0.9% ▲

386 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.298

lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —

457 / 160 PA

wOBA.292

lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —

457 / 200 PA

Strikeout %9.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−12.2%vs his norm —

457 / 60 PA

Walk %5.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —

457 / 120 PA

BABIP.261

lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm −.007 ▼BABIP is below his ~.268 norm — expect it to rise.

386 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —

457 / 50 PA

Chase %40.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+12.1%vs his norm —

457 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 3.1%→2.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.1% (signal) tempered to career ~2.2% → projected 2.8%.

BABIP 0.261→0.268 regressednoise.244 AVG — BABIP 0.261 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.272) → 0.268.

on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.

slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 52 G) over ~42 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons