Is Ildemaro Vargas a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Ildemaro Vargas's rest-of-season outlook?

Just 3% barrels and 87 mph exit velo — empty average.

486 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Ildemaro Vargas

AZ·1B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Vargas is a sell — light contact and a high chase rate add up to a .297 xwOBA.

His expected wOBA is .297, which is .018 below the league average of .315, on 486 plate appearances — well past the point where that number settles. His actual wOBA is .295, so nothing is dragging the line down unfairly. His BABIP-against is near league average and his expected number has been stepping down across the sample, which makes the trend worse, not better. The contact is the problem: 87.4 mph average exit velocity against a 89.0 mph league mark, a 35% hard-hit rate against 40%, and 3.2% barrels against 8%. He rarely strikes out, at 10.1%, but that empty contact comes with a 39.2% chase rate, which is well above league. There is no bad-luck story here and no hidden upside in the contact profile. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is pure drop-tier waiver filler — fade the skill, cut the roster spot.

VS His Norm

Barrel %3.2%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~2.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.4 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —

407 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —

407 / 50 BBE

Barrel %3.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm +1.0% ▲

407 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.297

lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —

486 / 160 PA

wOBA.295

lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —

486 / 200 PA

Strikeout %10.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−11.9%vs his norm —

486 / 60 PA

Walk %5.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —

486 / 120 PA

BABIP.267

lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm −.001 ▼BABIP is below his ~.268 norm — expect it to rise.

407 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %7.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —

486 / 50 PA

Chase %39.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.7%vs his norm —

486 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 3.2%→2.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.2% (signal) tempered to career ~2.2% → projected 2.9%.

BABIP 0.267→0.268 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.267 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.268) → 0.268.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 52 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons