Sal Frelick

Frelick is a sell — his bat is below league with no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA has been trending down all season and now sits at .281, a full .034 below the league average of .315. That number is reliable at 204 plate appearances. His actual wOBA is even lower at .268, so he is not suffering from bad luck on balls in play. The contact quality metrics tell the same story: his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph (3 mph below league), his hard-hit rate is 26.9% (13 points below league), and his barrel rate is 2.5% (a third of the league average). All of those metrics have cleared their stabilization thresholds. He does strike out only 10.3% of the time and walks at a league-average rate, but that disciplined approach has not generated power or production. This is a below-average bat with no bounce-back mechanism in the numbers. Sell.