95 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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David Fry
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Fry is a sell-high — BABIP-driven line won't hold.
His actual wOBA sits at .347, but the machinery underneath does not support it. The number doing the heavy lifting is his BABIP: .360, 65 points above league average, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize — he has only 53. His expected wOBA is .280, a 67-point gap pointing straight at regression. His strikeout rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 29.5%, 7.5 points above league, which caps his floor when the BABIP normalizes. The contact quality is below league too: 86.3 mph average exit velocity and a 34.0% hard-hit rate. The surface is real on the stat line; the underlying skill is not. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.72
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.360 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.280 is 0.067 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL53 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL53 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%too early to trust
NOISE53 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.280
lg avg .315 ▼−.035too early to trust
NOISE95 / 160 PA
wOBA.347
lg avg .315 ▲+.032too early to trust
NOISE95 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL95 / 60 PA
Walk %14.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+6.2%too early to trust
NOISE95 / 120 PA
BABIP.360
lg avg .295 ▲+.065too early to trust
NOISE53 / 800 BIP