149 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
David Fry
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.263); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .173R 18RBI 12SB 0
Fry is a hold — league average with a high K% cap.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .259 YTD → .173 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %7.3%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.263)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.8 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.2 mphvs his norm —
82 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
82 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
82 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 160 PA
wOBA.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.9%vs his norm —
149 / 60 PA
Walk %14.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
149 / 120 PA
BABIP.263
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm −.023 ▼BABIP is below his ~.286 norm — expect it to rise.
82 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
149 / 50 PA
Chase %26.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
149 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.3%→8.3%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.3% (signal) lifted to career ~8.7% → projected 8.3%.
BABIP 0.263→0.233 regressednoise.173 AVG — BABIP 0.263 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.177) → 0.233.
on-base + lineup18 R — his run rate over ~144 projected PA.
slugging + lineup12 RBI — his RBI rate over ~144 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 37 G) over ~144 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.