MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 20, 2026
102 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Samad Taylor

SD·LF
data as of July 20, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
Sell High strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.491 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.326 is 0.038 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.65
ROSHR 1AVG .201R 0RBI 0SB 0

Taylor is a sell-high — BABIP inflating the line.

His expected wOBA is .326, just eleven points above league average, but his actual wOBA sits at .364 — a gap that has one source: BABIP at .491, nearly 200 points above league average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 60. That gap is luck, not skill, and when it normalizes, the line will follow it down. His contact quality is below league: 85.2 mph exit velocity, 25.0% hard-hit rate, and 3.3% barrel rate are all low. His strikeout rate is 29.4% — stable and well above league — and it has been stepping up across the sample, which caps his floor. The production is built on the unreliable stat and the underlying skills do not support it. Sell high. 1 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .201 AVG makes him a streaming-only drop before the slide.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.491 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.326 is 0.038 below the surface — regression coming
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.2 mph
85.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.8 mphvs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %25.0%
25.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.0%vs his norm —
60 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.3%
3.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.7%vs his norm —
60 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.326
.326*
lg avg .315 ▲+.011vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 160 PA
wOBA.364
.364*
lg avg .315 ▲+.049vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
102 / 60 PA
Walk %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 120 PA
BABIP.491
.491*
lg avg .295 ▲+.196vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
60 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
102 / 50 PA
Chase %28.7%
28.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
102 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.3%→4.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 3.3% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 4.2%.
BABIP 0.491→0.388 regressednoise.201 AVG — BABIP 0.491 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.283) → 0.388.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~106 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~106 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 1 G) over ~106 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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