MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
151 PA · week 18
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Cole Carrigg

COL·CF
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Sell High BABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.322 is 0.049 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.67
ROSHR 2AVG .247R 0RBI 0SB 0

Carrigg is a sell-high — BABIP pumping the line.

His actual wOBA is .371, well above league average, but the number doing the heavy lifting is his BABIP: .330, 35 points above average. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 103. That gap is luck, not a repeatable skill. His expected wOBA is .322, 49 points below his actual line — that gap is the regression waiting to happen. His contact quality is below league: 86.8 mph exit velocity, 34.0% hard-hit rate, 5.8% barrel rate, all under the averages. The surface says breakout; the underlying numbers say luck. Limited data, but the shape is clear: the BABIP-driven wOBA will come down. Sell high. The projected 2 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .247 AVG line is a drop-level streamer, not a hold.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.330 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.322 is 0.049 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
86.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
103 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.0%
34.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —
103 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
103 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.322
.322*
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 160 PA
wOBA.371
.371*
lg avg .315 ▲+.056vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
151 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.5%
20.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
151 / 60 PA
Walk %9.9%
9.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
151 / 120 PA
BABIP.330
.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
151 / 50 PA
Chase %35.8%
35.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —
151 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.8%→6.2%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.8% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 6.2%.
BABIP 0.330→0.329 regressednoise.247 AVG — BABIP 0.330 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.329 (xBA 0.247) → 0.329.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~123 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~123 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~123 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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