Is Denzer Guzman a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Denzer Guzman's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .266 and 86.8 mph exit velo — nothing underneath

295 PA · week 27

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Denzer Guzman

LAA·3B

data as of September 27, 2026·week 27

Sell stable xwOBA 0.266 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Guzman is a sell — the bat is below league and trending the wrong way.

His expected wOBA is .266, a full .049 below the league average of .315, and with 295 plate appearances he is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His strikeout rate of 25.8% is above league, his walk rate of 5.8% is below it, and 14.1% swinging strikes says he is chasing; he swings at 33.5% of pitches outside the zone. His xwOBA has stepped down across the season, not up. The contact metrics match: 35% hard-hit and 5% barrels, both below league. Nothing is being masked, and nothing is waiting to come back. This is who he is right now. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is a pure drop, streaming-only at best in deep leagues.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.266 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —

200 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —

200 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

200 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.266

lg avg .315 ▼−.049vs his norm —

295 / 160 PA

wOBA.269

lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —

295 / 200 PA

Strikeout %25.8%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —

295 / 60 PA

Walk %5.8%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

295 / 120 PA

BABIP.274

lg avg .295 ▼−.021vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

200 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %14.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —

295 / 50 PA

Chase %33.5%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —

295 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.0%→5.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.6%.

BABIP 0.274→0.285 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.274 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.289 (xBA 0.225) → 0.285.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons