MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
138 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Denzer Guzman

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.276); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .246R 0RBI 0SB 0

Guzman is a hold — league-average skill with limited data.

ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .000 YTD → .246 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

Drivers

  • xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.276)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.1 mph
87.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.9 mphvs his norm —
93 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.5%
35.5%*
lg avg 40.0% −4.5%vs his norm —
93 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.4%
5.4%*
lg avg 8.0% −2.6%vs his norm —
93 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.276
.276*
lg avg .315 −.039vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
138 / 160 PA
wOBA.286
.286*
lg avg .315 −.029vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
138 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.1%
26.1%*
lg avg 22.0% +4.1%vs his norm —
138 / 60 PA
Walk %5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.5% −2.7%vs his norm —
138 / 120 PA
BABIP.303
.303*
lg avg .295 +.008vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league averageexpect it to fall.
93 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% +2.2%vs his norm —
138 / 50 PA
Chase %34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 28.5% +5.9%vs his norm —
138 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.4%→5.9%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.4% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.9%.
BABIP 0.303→0.303 regressednoise.246 AVG — BABIP 0.303 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.236) → 0.303.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~130 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~130 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 2 G) over ~130 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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