95 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Adael Amador
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP 0.284 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.274 is 0.091 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.78 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Amador is a sell-high — the surface line runs on luck
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.9%—+3.5% ▲vs his ~3.4% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.284 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.274 is 0.091 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.8 mphvs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %25.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.0%vs his norm —
72 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +3.5% ▲
72 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.274
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 160 PA
wOBA.365
lg avg .315 ▲+.050vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 200 PA
Strikeout %12.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm —
95 / 60 PA
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.5% league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 120 PA
BABIP.284
lg avg .295 ▼−.011vs his norm +.054 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
72 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
95 / 50 PA
Chase %24.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
95 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.9%→4.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) tempered to career ~3.4% → projected 4.3%.
BABIP 0.284→0.235 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.284 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.207) → 0.235.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 4 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.