MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nasim Nuñez
464 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Nasim Nuñez

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell stable xwOBA 0.266 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65
ROSAVG .211HR 0R 4RBI 3SB 4

Nuñez is a sell — the bat is underpowered and the numbers know it.

He is averaging 85.0 mph off the bat — four mph below league — and hitting the ball hard just 21.7% of the time, with a barrel rate of 0.9%. Those are contact-quality numbers, and 322 batted balls is well past the point where they become reliable. They explain his expected wOBA of .266, which sits a wide margin below the league average of .315, and his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample rather than building. This is not a case of bad bounces: his actual wOBA is .250, below even that .266 mark, so no suppressed luck stat is hiding a better hitter. His strikeout and swing decisions are fine — that is the problem. The approach is sound; there is simply nothing under it. Sell. 4 SB and .211 AVG the rest of the way is a deep-league drag, not a reason to hold — sell.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %0.9%−1.7%vs his ~2.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.266 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.0 mph
85.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −4.0 mphvs his norm —
322 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %21.7%
21.7%*
lg avg 40.0% −18.3%vs his norm —
322 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.9%
norm0.9%*
lg avg 8.0% −7.1%vs his norm −1.7%
322 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.266
.266*
lg avg .315 −.049vs his norm —
464 / 160 PA
wOBA.250
believable since Jun 2.250*
lg avg .315 −.065vs his norm —
464 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.7%
20.7%*
lg avg 22.0% −1.3%vs his norm —
464 / 60 PA
Walk %9.7%
9.7%*
lg avg 8.5% +1.2%vs his norm —
464 / 120 PA
BABIP.272
norm.272*
lg avg .295 −.023vs his norm −.014 BABIP is below his ~.286 normexpect it to rise.
322 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% −0.9%vs his norm —
464 / 50 PA
Chase %26.4%
26.4%*
lg avg 28.5% −2.1%vs his norm —
464 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 0.9%→1.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 0.9% (signal) lifted to career ~2.6% → projected 1.6%.
BABIP 0.272→0.278 regressednoise.211 AVG — BABIP 0.272 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.222) → 0.278.
on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~40 projected PA.
slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~40 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (22 in 57 G) over ~40 projected PA.
rosterdeep26 SB

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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