MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brooks Lee
373 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Brooks Lee

MIN·SS
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xwOBA 0.279 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.62
ROSAVG .211HR 2R 22RBI 29SB 3

Lee is a sell — skill below league, no bad luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .279, well below the league average of .315, and he has 373 plate appearances — far past the 160 needed for reliability. The surface numbers are not rescuing him: his actual wOBA is .322, which is only seven points above league, and that small gap is closing. His contact quality is anemic: 88.0 mph exit velocity, 31.4% hard-hit rate, and 3.9% barrel rate, all well below league, and all stable at over 280 batted ball events. He does walk at a decent 7.5% and strikes out just 16.1%, but disciplined plate appearances produce weak contact. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample — there is no rebound brewing. The skill is what the numbers say. Sell. With a .211 AVG and 2 HR projected, 2 HR / 22 R / 29 RBI / 3 SB / .211 AVG is a streaming-only stash in deep leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.9%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~5.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.279 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.0 mph
88.0 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
283 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
283 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.9%
norm3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
283 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.279
.279*
lg avg .315 ▼−.036vs his norm —
373 / 160 PA
wOBA.322
believable since May 26.322*
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
373 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.1%
16.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm —
373 / 60 PA
Walk %7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
373 / 120 PA
BABIP.265
norm.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm +.011 ▲BABIP is above his ~.254 norm — expect it to fall.
283 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
10.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
373 / 50 PA
Chase %33.0%
33.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
373 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.9%→4.5%signal2 HR — Barrel% 3.9% (signal) lifted to career ~5.3% → projected 4.5%.
BABIP 0.265→0.253 regressednoise.211 AVG — BABIP 0.265 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.246 (xBA 0.230) → 0.253.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~187 projected PA.
slugging + lineup29 RBI — his RBI rate over ~187 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 57 G) over ~187 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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