255 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mickey Moniak
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.301); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .204R 19RBI 25SB 1
Moniak is a hold — surface is ahead of the skill.
ROS projects HR 12 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .280 YTD → .204 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.9%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~11.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.301)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.301
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
255 / 160 PA
wOBA.370
lg avg .315 ▲+.055vs his norm —
255 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
255 / 60 PA
Walk %5.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
255 / 120 PA
BABIP.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm −.009 ▼BABIP is below his ~.317 norm — expect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
255 / 50 PA
Chase %41.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.4%vs his norm —
255 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.9%→11.5%signal4 HR — Barrel% 10.9% (signal) lifted to career ~11.9% → projected 11.5%.
BABIP 0.308→0.247 regressednoise.204 AVG — BABIP 0.308 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.225) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~146 projected PA.
slugging + lineup25 RBI — his RBI rate over ~146 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 43 G) over ~146 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.