MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
255 PA · week 18
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Mickey Moniak

data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.301); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .204R 19RBI 25SB 1

Moniak is a hold — surface is ahead of the skill.

ROS projects HR 12 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .280 YTD → .204 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.9%−1.0%vs his ~11.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.301)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
89.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.6 mphvs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.4%
43.4%*
lg avg 40.0% +3.4%vs his norm —
175 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.9%
norm10.9%*
lg avg 8.0% +2.9%vs his norm −1.0%
175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.301
.301*
lg avg .315 −.014vs his norm —
255 / 160 PA
wOBA.370
.370*
lg avg .315 +.055vs his norm —
255 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.7%
24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% +2.7%vs his norm —
255 / 60 PA
Walk %5.5%
5.5%*
lg avg 8.5% −3.0%vs his norm —
255 / 120 PA
BABIP.308
norm.308*
lg avg .295 +.013vs his norm −.009 BABIP is below his ~.317 normexpect it to rise.
175 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
16.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +5.6%vs his norm —
255 / 50 PA
Chase %41.9%
41.9%*
lg avg 28.5% +13.4%vs his norm —
255 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.9%→11.5%signal4 HR — Barrel% 10.9% (signal) lifted to career ~11.9% → projected 11.5%.
BABIP 0.308→0.247 regressednoise.204 AVG — BABIP 0.308 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.225) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~146 projected PA.
slugging + lineup25 RBI — his RBI rate over ~146 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 43 G) over ~146 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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