Is Jonah Heim a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jonah Heim's rest-of-season outlook?

Hard-hit rate 32% and 87 mph exit velo can't carry a catcher.

390 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Jonah Heim

ATH·C

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.285 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Heim is a sell — the bat is below league and the contact confirms it.

His expected wOBA is .285, thirty points below the league average of .315, and at 390 plate appearances it is well past the point where the number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .275, so his production is not being dragged down by bad bounces — the skill matches the line. The contact quality tells the same story: 87.3 mph average exit velocity against a league average of 89.0, a 32.3% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, and 5.8% barrels against 8.0%. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which means this is not a slump to buy into. He does make contact — a 17.9% strikeout rate and a 10.7% swinging-strike rate, both better than league — but making contact at this quality produces outs. There is no luck story to wait out. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is waiver-wire drag, not a stash — drop him.

VS His Norm

Barrel %5.8%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.285 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —

291 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %32.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —

291 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −0.9% ▼

291 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.285

lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —

390 / 160 PA

wOBA.275

lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —

390 / 200 PA

Strikeout %17.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —

390 / 60 PA

Walk %6.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —

390 / 120 PA

BABIP.216

lg avg .295 ▼−.079vs his norm −.044 ▼BABIP is below his ~.260 norm — expect it to rise.

291 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —

390 / 50 PA

Chase %33.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —

390 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.8%→6.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 5.8% (signal) lifted to career ~6.7% → projected 6.2%.

BABIP 0.216→0.235 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.216 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.246 (xBA 0.227) → 0.235.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 22 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons