Is Jonah Heim a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jonah Heim's rest-of-season outlook?

Barrel rate 6.9%, hard-hit 29.8% — empty contact.

180 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Jonah Heim

ATH·C

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 3AVG .220R 17RBI 21SB 0

Heim is a sell — skill below league, no luck to blame.

His expected wOBA is .297, which is .018 below the league average of .315, and he has 180 plate appearances — enough for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA tracks closely with xwOBA, so there is no luck story pulling the line down. His contact quality is consistently below league: a 29.8% hard-hit rate versus 40.0% league average, and his average exit velocity is 87.1 mph, nearly two mph below league. Barrel rate is also slightly below league at 6.9%. The xwOBA trajectory has been stepping down across the sample, reinforcing that the skill is declining. There is no hidden upside here — this is the level he's at. Sell. 3 HR / 17 R / 21 RBI / 0 SB / .220 AVG is a drop-tier line — a streaming-only catcher at best.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.9%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —

131 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %29.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.2%vs his norm —

131 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm +0.2% ▲

131 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.297

lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —

180 / 160 PA

wOBA.318

lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.

180 / 200 PA

Strikeout %19.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

180 / 60 PA

Walk %7.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —

180 / 120 PA

BABIP.238

lg avg .295 ▼−.057vs his norm −.022 ▼BABIP is below his ~.260 norm — expect it to rise.

131 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —

180 / 50 PA

Chase %34.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —

180 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.9%→6.8%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.9% (signal) tempered to career ~6.7% → projected 6.8%.

BABIP 0.238→0.251 regressednoise.220 AVG — BABIP 0.238 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.254 (xBA 0.233) → 0.251.

on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~153 projected PA.

slugging + lineup21 RBI — his RBI rate over ~153 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 22 G) over ~153 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons