Is Jonah Heim a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jonah Heim's rest-of-season outlook?

32.3% hard-hit, 87.9 mph exit velo — catcher power's gone

352 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Jonah Heim

ATH·C

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.60

ROSHR 0AVG .204R 4RBI 5SB 0

Heim is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame

His expected wOBA is .290, .025 below the league average of .315, and he has 352 plate appearances — well past the 160 he needs for that number to be reliable. What is on his stat line matches the skill: his actual wOBA is .284, so there is no bad-luck story pulling a good bat down. His contact quality is the reason. He averages 87.9 mph off the bat, more than a mile per hour below league, with a 32.3% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, and both samples are well past the point where those numbers become trustworthy. The expected wOBA has also been stepping down across the sample rather than climbing. This is the level he is at. Sell. 0 HR and a .204 AVG ROS is dead weight — streaming-only catcher, cut him loose.

VS His Norm

Barrel %6.5%—−0.2% ▼vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.9 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —

260 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %32.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —

260 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −0.2% ▼

260 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.290

lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —

352 / 160 PA

wOBA.284

lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —

352 / 200 PA

Strikeout %18.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —

352 / 60 PA

Walk %7.1%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —

352 / 120 PA

BABIP.219

lg avg .295 ▼−.076vs his norm −.041 ▼BABIP is below his ~.260 norm — expect it to rise.

260 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —

352 / 50 PA

Chase %33.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —

352 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.5%→6.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.5% (signal) held to career ~6.7% → projected 6.6%.

BABIP 0.219→0.237 regressednoise.204 AVG — BABIP 0.219 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.246 (xBA 0.227) → 0.237.

on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~36 projected PA.

slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~36 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 22 G) over ~36 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons