178 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD
Gary Sánchez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.72 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 5AVG .210R 20RBI 20SB 0
Sánchez is a buy — elite plate discipline drives the line.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.0%—−3.6% ▼vs his ~12.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.374, +0.059 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −3.6% ▼
111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.374
lg avg .315 ▲+.059vs his norm —
178 / 160 PA
wOBA.363
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
178 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
178 / 60 PA
Walk %19.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+10.6%vs his norm —
178 / 120 PA
BABIP.223
lg avg .295 ▼−.072vs his norm −.011 ▼BABIP is below his ~.234 norm — expect it to rise.
111 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
178 / 50 PA
Chase %19.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−8.9%vs his norm —
178 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.0%→11.3%signal5 HR — Barrel% 9.0% (signal) lifted to career ~12.6% → projected 11.3%.
BABIP 0.223→0.247 regressednoise.210 AVG — BABIP 0.223 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.251 (xBA 0.237) → 0.247.
on-base + lineup20 R — his run rate over ~159 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~159 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 34 G) over ~159 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.