week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
José Suarez
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.56 sits 0.54 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.372 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.82 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 28ERA 3.56WHIP 1.36W 0–0SV 0–2
Suarez is a buy-low — ERA is a BABIP lie.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.8%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~20.9% career norm
- Walk %9.9%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~9.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.56 sits 0.54 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.372 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed1.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —
222 / 200 TBF
xERA3.56
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —
222 / 200 TBF
ERA4.29
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.19vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
50.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
222 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
222 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.372
lg avg .295 ▲+.077vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
222 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
222 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
865 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.8%→22.9%signal28 K — K% 24.8% (signal) tempered to career ~20.9% → projected 22.9% over ~26 remaining…
xERA 3.56signal3.56 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.56 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.9% + contactsignal1.36 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.309 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-2 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.