Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is a buy — elite contact, production earned.

His expected wOBA is .408 — .093 above league average — and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is slightly lower at .393, so his production is earned, not inflated by luck. The driver is elite contact quality: his hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample, now at 52.6%, well above the 40.0% league average, and his barrel rate is double the league norm. Both are based on 156 batted balls, well past the stabilization point. He walks 15.1% of the time against a league average of 8.5%, adding to his on-base value. His strikeout rate is right at league average, so there is no swing-and-miss drag. The skill is real and the market can price the production. Buy.