MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Miguel Vargas
704 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Miguel Vargas

CWS·3B
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.378, +0.063 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.73
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Vargas is a buy — earned production and contact still climbing

His expected wOBA is .378 against a league average of .315, and he has 704 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The gain is real because the contact underpinning it is real: a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 13.0% barrels, both clearly above league, on 469 batted balls. Both of those numbers are still trending up, which makes the case stronger rather than shakier. He also controls the strike zone — 17.9% strikeouts, 14.3% walks — so the production isn't coming from a fragile skill set. His actual wOBA of .363 sits below his expected wOBA, meaning luck isn't flattering him; the bat is genuine and the results are still catching up. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %13.0%—+5.5% ▲vs his ~7.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.378, +0.063 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
469 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.8%
43.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
469 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.0%
norm13.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +5.5% ▲
469 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.378
.378*
lg avg .315 ▲+.063vs his norm —
704 / 160 PA
wOBA.363
.363*
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —
704 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.9%
17.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
704 / 60 PA
Walk %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
704 / 120 PA
BABIP.261
norm.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm +.031 ▲BABIP is above his ~.230 norm — expect it to fall.
469 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
704 / 50 PA
Chase %20.9%
20.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−7.6%vs his norm —
704 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.0%→11.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 13.0% (signal) tempered to career ~7.5% → projected 11.4%.
BABIP 0.261→0.258 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.261 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.254 (xBA 0.263) → 0.258.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (9 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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