Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryRanger
105K ←98
4.44ERA →3.61
1.30WHIP1.30
6–12W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryRanger
57K57
2.95ERA ←3.38
1.16WHIP1.16
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Ranger Suarez
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.61, 0.49 below league — production is earned
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Ranger Suarez: 98 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).