Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryPayton
105K →106
4.44ERA →3.73
1.30WHIP →1.27
6–12W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryPayton
57K ←46
2.95ERA →2.61
1.16WHIP →0.90
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Payton Tolle
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.21)
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Payton Tolle: 106 K / 3.73 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).