Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryJeffrey
105K ←100
4.44ERA →3.87
1.30WHIP →1.29
6–12W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryJeffrey
57K57
2.95ERA ←4.07
1.16WHIP ←1.19
5W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.62 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
Jeffrey Springs
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.87)
Connelly Early: 105 K / 4.44 ERA. Jeffrey Springs: 100 K / 3.87 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).