Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryPeter
104K ←81
4.44ERA →4.04
1.30WHIP ←1.33
6–12W6–12
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryPeter
57K ←43
2.95ERA ←3.77
1.16WHIP ←1.21
5W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.63 is 1.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Peter Lambert
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.85)
Connelly Early: 104 K / 4.44 ERA. Peter Lambert: 81 K / 4.04 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).