Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryGrayson
104K ←88
4.44ERA →4.10
1.30WHIP1.30
6–12W →7–15
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryGrayson
57K ←14
2.95ERA ←7.53
1.16WHIP ←1.67
5W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.63 is 1.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Grayson Rodriguez
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (7.04)
Connelly Early: 104 K / 4.44 ERA. Grayson Rodriguez: 88 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).