Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryGerrit
79K →92
3.73ERA ←4.10
1.27WHIP ←1.30
2–5W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryGerrit
49K ←12
2.27ERA →0.00
0.97WHIP →0.71
2W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Gerrit Cole
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.79)
Cole projects for 94 K / 4.10 ERA vs Mize's 80 K / 3.73 ERA — the 14-K edge and ERA gap reflect different paths; the verdicts split accordingly.