Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryDustin
79K79
3.73ERA →3.65
1.27WHIP ←1.31
2–5W →3–7
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryDustin
49K →51
2.27ERA ←4.57
0.97WHIP ←1.30
2W →3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Dustin May
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.65)
Mize and May project for identical 80 K, but May's 3.64 ERA edges Mize's 3.73. The split verdicts — sell-high for Mize, hold for May — match the narrow skill gap.