Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryDustin
93K ←79
4.39ERA →3.65
1.32WHIP →1.31
5–11W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryDustin
57K ←51
2.95ERA ←4.57
1.16WHIP ←1.30
5W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.55 is 1.25 above the ERA — regression coming
Dustin May
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.65)
Connelly Early: 95 K / 4.38 ERA. Dustin May: 81 K / 3.63 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).