Rest of Season Projection
ConnellyCategoryGerrit
102K ←99
4.45ERA →4.10
1.30WHIP1.30
6–12W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
ConnellyCategoryGerrit
57K ←12
2.95ERA →0.00
1.16WHIP →0.71
5W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Connelly Early
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.64 is 1.38 above the ERA — regression coming
Gerrit Cole
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.191 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.48 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
Connelly Early: 102 K / 4.45 ERA. Gerrit Cole: 99 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).