Rest of Season Projection
GerritCategoryLucas
99K ←50
4.10ERA4.10
1.30WHIP1.30
4–9W →7–16
0SV0
Current Season
GerritCategoryLucas
12K ←6
0.00ERA ←4.97
0.71WHIP ←1.74
1W →2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gerrit Cole
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.191 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.48 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
Lucas Giolito
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.12)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Gerrit Cole: 99 K / 4.10 ERA. Lucas Giolito: 50 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).