Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryFreddy
79K →109
3.73ERA ←3.78
1.27WHIP ←1.35
2–5W3–6
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryFreddy
49K →68
2.27ERA ←3.55
0.97WHIP ←1.30
2W →3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Freddy Peralta
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.78)
Mize projects for 3.73 ERA / 80 K vs Peralta 3.77 ERA / 111 K. Peralta leads in strikeouts; Mize edges in WHIP (1.27 vs 1.35). The sell-high window on Mize contrasts with Peralta's hold. Sell Mize; hold Peralta.