Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryRanger
81K →87
3.78ERA →3.62
1.33WHIP →1.27
5–10W ←2–4
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryRanger
45K →57
2.39ERA ←3.38
1.10WHIP ←1.16
4W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Ranger Suarez
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league — production is earned
Clay Holmes: 82 K / 3.77 ERA. Ranger Suarez: 89 K / 3.61 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).