Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryTaj
81K →106
3.78ERA ←4.31
1.33WHIP ←1.35
5–10W →5–12
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryTaj
45K →65
2.39ERA ←3.21
1.10WHIP ←1.21
4W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Taj Bradley
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.43 +0.33 vs league with no luck excuse
Holmes projects for 3.77 ERA vs Bradley's 4.31, while Bradley outpaces Holmes 108 K to 82 K. The ERA gap is modest; the strikeout gap is notable. Hold Holmes; the verdicts align with the numbers.