Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategorySonny
81K81
3.78ERA ←4.39
1.33WHIP1.33
5–10W →7–15
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategorySonny
45K ←41
2.39ERA ←3.06
1.10WHIP ←1.20
4W →6
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Sonny Gray
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.55 +0.45 vs league with no luck excuse
Clay Holmes: 82 K / 3.77 ERA. Sonny Gray: 82 K / 4.39 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).