Rest of Season Projection
CaseyCategoryTaj
79K →106
3.73ERA ←4.31
1.27WHIP ←1.35
2–5W →5–12
0SV0
Current Season
CaseyCategoryTaj
49K →65
2.27ERA ←3.21
0.97WHIP ←1.21
2W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Casey Mize
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.37 above the ERA — regression coming
Taj Bradley
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.43 +0.33 vs league with no luck excuse
Casey Mize: 80 K / 3.73 ERA. Taj Bradley: 108 K / 4.31 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).