Rest of Season Projection
ClayCategoryGerrit
81K →92
3.78ERA ←4.10
1.33WHIP →1.30
5–10W ←4–8
0SV0
Current Season
ClayCategoryGerrit
45K ←12
2.39ERA →0.00
1.10WHIP →0.71
4W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Clay Holmes
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.252 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.78 is 1.39 above the ERA — regression coming
Gerrit Cole
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.79)
Clay Holmes: 81 K / 3.78 ERA. Gerrit Cole: 92 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).