Rest of Season Projection
DerekCategoryRyan
7HR ←5
28R ←24
19RBI →54
19SB ←5
.217AVG →.229
Current Season
DerekCategoryRyan
3HR3
9R9
6RBI →20
6SB ←2
.234AVG →.278
What Each Player's System Trusts
Derek Hill
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.314)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ryan Vilade
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.324 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.307 is 0.045 below the surface — regression coming
Derek Hill: 7 HR / 28 R. Ryan Vilade: 5 HR / 24 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).