Rest of Season Projection
EricCategoryZack
79K ←70
4.96ERA ←5.39
1.40WHIP →1.37
3–6W →6–12
0SV0
Current Season
EricCategoryZack
30K →35
5.95ERA →5.01
1.39WHIP →1.37
2W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Eric Lauer
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.43 +1.33 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Zack Littell
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 6.09 is 1.08 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Eric Lauer: 79 K / 4.96 ERA. Zack Littell: 70 K / 5.39 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).