Rest of Season Projection
ErickCategoryMatt
61K →67
4.43ERA →4.09
1.41WHIP →1.30
0–0W →2–4
0SV0
Current Season
ErickCategoryMatt
34K ←22
5.40ERA ←8.49
1.48WHIP ←1.71
0W →1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Erick Fedde
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.61 +0.51 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Matt Waldron
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.78 sits 0.32 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.384 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
Erick Fedde: 62 K / 4.43 ERA. Matt Waldron: 68 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).