Rest of Season Projection
FreddieCategoryRafael
15HR15
43R ←39
44RBI →45
3SB ←0
.275AVG ←.228
Current Season
FreddieCategoryRafael
8HR ←7
29R ←26
30RBI30
2SB ←0
.266AVG ←.251
What Each Player's System Trusts
Freddie Freeman
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.371, +0.056 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Rafael Devers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.290 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
Freddie Freeman: 15 HR / 43 R. Rafael Devers: 15 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).