Rest of Season Projection
JacCategoryTristan
14HR ←6
34R →35
22RBI →27
2SB →8
.254AVG ←.248
Current Season
JacCategoryTristan
6HR ←2
20R ←18
13RBI →14
1SB →4
.242AVG →.295
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jac Caglianone
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.341, +0.026 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Tristan Peters
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.363 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.291 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Jac Caglianone: 14 HR / 34 R. Tristan Peters: 6 HR / 35 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).