Rest of Season Projection
JacksonCategoryMike
12HR →20
36R →64
31RBI →44
14SB ←7
.251AVG ←.244
Current Season
JacksonCategoryMike
2HR →14
13R →45
11RBI →31
5SB5
.276AVG ←.242
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jackson Chourio
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.403 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.349 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Mike Trout
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.275 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Jackson Chourio: 12 HR / 36 R. Mike Trout: 20 HR / 64 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).