Rest of Season Projection
JarrenCategoryTeoscar
11HR11
40R →45
45RBI →46
14SB ←3
.212AVG →.253
Current Season
JarrenCategoryTeoscar
10HR ←7
29R →30
33RBI ←31
10SB ←2
.219AVG →.276
What Each Player's System Trusts
Jarren Duran
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.295 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Teoscar Hernández
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.355 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
Duran's 14 SB to Hernández's 3 frames a speed edge, while Hernández bats .253 to Duran's .212. Sell Duran's unsupported production; buy Hernández's steady skill.